Linda's Magic 8 Ball

If you have been paying attention to all the predictions people are making about our industry, you may have wondered where they are getting their information. I know I have. In poor economic times, it seems everyone dusts off their Magic 8 Ball to ask, “What is going to happen next?”

I have seen many of the articles published by our industry news contributors, and I have never been more confused about trends.

Recently Smith Travel and Research did a presentation at NYU, and all the doom and gloom data was covered thoroughly. (I would guess not too many people would pursue a hospitality degree if they heard that presentation) In all fairness, they did squeeze in a few good points which I will get to in a minute here.

The STR presentation was very colorful, with some really neat graphs. I think I need to take a night class at ITT Tech to learn how to make these. Unfortunately, most of these pretty graphs were pointing downward, the biggest downward trend being REVPAR at 18.2% lower this year than last. So we are not doing too badly with our decreases, right? WRONG! They coined a new term, and it is called “new frugality.” Of course they had a pretty graph to show us “new frugality” and how many travelers are trading down. This trend means our mid-scale hotels should be raking in the dough, however, most mid-scale hotels are not.”

After my first view of their presentation, I was pretty depressed and lost even more sleep than usual. I decided to revisit the presentation, this time with my pair of rose-colored glasses.

With a shade of pink, I saw the following:
Demand has not fallen below post 9/11.
ADR’s nationwide stayed above post 9/11.
Demand is actually just below pre 9/11.
Current ADR is actually still above ADR’s before 9/11.
Group business is only down 3.9% weekday and 3.8% weekend…people are still meeting.
With capital being tight, the new hotel growth pipeline is shrinking, so you may have less competition moving into your markets.

This is a lot of information to process but we need to figure out what it all really means.

Now, do you want to hear what my Magic 8 Ball says? If so, read on.

We are an immediate gratification society with short attention spans. I am probably one of the guiltiest, and you can see this by the number of McDonald’s receipts I send in every month and by my tendency to channel surf through the news, only wanting to hear the good stories.
We spoil our children. If they want to go to Wisconsin Dells on summer vacation, by all means…we are packing up the station wagon and hitting the water park resorts.
Sure, some airlines have reduced the number of flights, but the airplanes flying today certainly seem to be just as full as they were in good times, and I am pretty certain all these corporate travelers didn’t check a sleeping bag and tent to stay in when they reach their final destinations. At least I haven’t seen such items coming off the luggage carousel.


In all seriousness, predictions are tough to make, and only YOU know exactly what is going on in your market. The fact of the matter is that there is still business out there to be had. We simply need to be better with our sales efforts in order to get our needed share. The hard working Wisconsin farmer in me would say, “Bail the hay while the sun is shining but make sure you have planted lots of seeds with your sales efforts. “

Have you got a problem?

I was in a meeting with our friends at Marriott this last week and the subject came up of guests and the problems they experience. About a quarter of all Marriott guests who fill out satisfaction surveys have a problem of one type or another during their stay. It is kind of depressing to think that if that ratio holds true for all guests, 2000 to 3000 of our guests are having a problem in a Tharaldson managed hotel every day. Now I have a problem with that.

My mind starts running about the problem resolution programs we have in our hotels and whether or not they are being followed. I would certainly hope so, but that’s a lot of problems to resolve. It was at this point in the discussion about guest problems that a Marriott representative brought up challenges with his portfolio in the past and the mistakes that some operators were making. He said, “You cannot simply work to resolve problems, you need to solve problems.” His words make sense.

By solving problems, we are taking care of them before the guests experience issues. If our guest service agents make sure that special requests are met when blocking rooms, our guests are happier when they arrive. If housekeepers understand that they are in every room before our guests and that it is their responsibility to find and fix problems before guests ever walk into those rooms, our guests will have clean, comfortable rooms and they will be happier. If our maintenance people understand that the care they take in repairing and maintaining our building ensures that guests don’t have to deal with broken amenities, our guests will be happier. If our breakfast hosts and social attendants understand the importance if a well-prepared and beautifully-served meal, our guests will be happier. If our guests are happier, they will become repeat guests and help ensure that our ESOP statements keep us happy.

I hope that this ratio of guests having problems improves, but until then, do we have the right people in place to resolve issues immediately? Is every GSA well trained and empowered to handle any guest issue that arises? Do they have the support of the General Manager to handle the problem, right or wrong, as long as it is handled in the best interest of our guests? Our General Managers know better than to leave an associate alone in the hotel, unless they are confident that those employees can handle any guest concern. It’s all about having the right people and following the right process.

“Most people spend more time and energy going around problems than by trying to solve them.” - Henry Ford